An Application of Markov Chain Analysis to Study the Indian Cocoa Products Export Performance

The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian cocoa product exports. Data for analysis was considered for a period of 10 years from 2013-14 to 2022-23. The growth rates of exports of Indian cocoa products to Nigeria, Indonesia, USA, UAE, The Netherlands and other countries have shown a positive trend. The Markov chain analysis was attempted through the linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major cocoa markets. The results revealed that Nigeria, Nepal, UAE and other countries were stable markets for Indian cocoa export products. Whereas, Indonesia and The Netherlands were the least stable markets based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The export share predictions for 2025-26 behaved stagnant while also increasing slightly for major destinations.